Pentagon didn't see Egyptian revolt coming.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/pentagon-predict-egypt-unrest/

"In the last three years, America’s military and intelligence agencies have spent more than $125 million on computer models that are supposed to forecast political unrest. It’s the latest episode in Washington’s four-decade dalliance with future-spotting programs. But if any of these algorithms saw the upheaval in Egypt coming, the spooks and the generals are keeping the predictions very quiet.  Instead, the head of the CIA is getting hauled in front of Congress, making calls about Egypt’s future based on what he read in the press, and getting proven wrong hours later."

In my article on Project Chanology, I concluded that "In summary, collective action is easy to form and easy to do when it is Internet based. This makes collective action more likely and potentially more powerful once begun As more and more of these Internet based collective actions succeed in their established goals, such success will breed attempts at imitation. If Project Chanology succeeds in pressuring the Church of Scientology into significantly altering its methods or its strength, more people will look at Anonymous' actions and history for ideas on how to mirror their success. Project Chanology already shows the surprising speed and size that such collective actions can take. Such actions should be expected more and more in the near future, but it will not be possible to predict their creation."

Even those trying to organize such protests don't know for sure if it will work or not, because it's up to the decision of many individuals whether they see the value of the endeavor or not.  So I don't think you CAN predict such things, nor make a model to help you predict.  But the more times Internet collective action succeeds, the more likely it will be used again.